Articles: Shorts

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  Adjacency Matrix: How to expand after PMF

  A simple workshop that evaluates new business ideas relative to your existing strengths – the key to expanding without overreaching. —May 2024 | 2,400 words.
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  It's a torturous chaos until it isn't

  Even at wildly successful startups, the first few years are gut-wrenching, uncertain, on the brink of collapse, where pessimism is realism, and yet optimism is required. —April 2024 | 1,200 words.
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  Stubborn Visionaries & Pigheaded Fools

  How do you know when to stop, versus when to push through? You don’t, not even in hindsight. But these guiding questions can help. —March 2024 | 1,200 words.
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  AI startups require new strategies: This time it’s actually different

  The typical dynamics between startups and incumbents do not apply in AI as they did in previous technology revolutions like mobile and the Internet. Ignore this at your peril. —March 2024 | 1,900 words.
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  Deciding whether an investment is worthwhile

  Why “expected value” doesn’t work; here’s a better framework for making long-term investments in your career, startup, and life. —February 2024 | 2,700 words.
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  The “errors” that mean you’re doing it right

  Some things appear to be mistakes, but in fact should be celebrated as the expected outcomes of great decisions. —January 2024 | 1,600 words.
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  How many things should there be? (Hint: Not 10)

  If we happened to evolve with nine fingers, we would have “Top 9” lists. So, a “Top 10” list probably doesn’t have the correct number of things. —December 2023 | 400 words.
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  Product/Market Fit (PMF): Experience & Data

  Companies that achieve Product/Market Fit – both self-funded and VC-funded – exhibit the same prototypical metrics curves and subjective experiences. —November 2023 | 2,300 words.
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  Metrics that cannot even be measured in retrospect

  Some of the most enticing, important metrics are impossible to measure, even after the fact. Here’s how to identify and avoid this trap. —October 2023 | 1,800 words.
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  Mach 2: Practical Strategy in three stages

  Building a strategy that meets you where you are, aligning all your decisions, building a moat even if you’re a startup.
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  Stop saying “fail”

  Language shapes our perception of setbacks. Use words other than “failure” to describe situations and to suggest the next step. —September 2023 | 800 words.
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  Worse, but unique

  An objectively “worse” strategy can win, if it leverages something unique or unexpected. Startups can use this concept to beat incumbents. —August 2023 | 1,000 words.
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  In command

  Being “in control” is impossible, perhaps not even desirable. Being “in command” is ideal: honest, introspective, agile, aware, and proactive. —July 2023 | 1,100 words.
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  Selecting the right product metrics (KPIs)

  A novel system for selecting and presenting product KPIs, satisfying not only the product team, but also stakeholders, executives, and customers. —July 2023 | 2,500 words.
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  For probabilities, use Fermi numbers, not words

  Don’t use phrases like “unlikely” or “almost certainly.” Here’s real-world data showing why not, and what to do instead. —July 2023 | 1,000 words.
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  JIT selection from independent streams: An alternative to the “big backlog” of work

  The vaunted “single-threaded, ordered list” confuses “prioritization” with “work-planning,” and forces comparisons of the un-comparable. Here’s the solution. —August 2022 | 2,600 words.
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  Replacing the “SWOT” with The Landscape

  The traditional “SWOT” analysis doesn’t create insights that lead to great strategies. By analyzing its weaknesses, we reveal what an alternative process must do instead.
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  Productive meeting activities: Leverage the team, empower the individual

  Meetings are most productive when we create something that none of us could have created alone. Here are several ways to use meeting time wisely. —May 2022 | 1,200 words.
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  Moats: Durable competitive advantage

  Industries commoditize over time, delivering similar products at similar prices resulting in low profit. Moats are the antedote; your strategy must create some. —May 2022 | 1,800 words.
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  The “Great” Product Manager, a.k.a. the Impossible Product Manager

  According to the Internet, being a Product Manager is impossible. Can you ever measure up? No. But don’t worry, there’s a better answer. —April 2022 | 2,200 words.
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  Failure to face the truth

  This admonition recurs in myriad books, frameworks, and topics, across decades of time. When something is so consistent, it must be wisdom. —April 2022 | 1,900 words.
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  Extreme brainstorming questions to trigger new, better ideas

  We know, “no idea is a bad idea,” but brainstorming is often unsuccessful. These prompts actually work. They could even lead to a unique business model. —March 2022 | 3,700 words.
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  Who's lying?

  A lesson all pilots know: How you must use multiple dials, employing different sources of energy, to report identical data, because some of it is always lying. —February 2022 | 800 words.
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  Three languages: Disentangling our desires, needs, values, and work

  Stop talking past each other. Understanding the three distinct languages of business allows everyone to be understood and to succeed.
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  Capturing luck with “or” instead of “and”

  Luck always plays a role in startups, but there are ways to better capture upside, and better mitigate downside. —October 2019 | 800 words.
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  Distributed Logical Time

  A simple, decentralized, scalable, constant-memory mechanism for independent replicas to record events in time, preserving the “happened-before” relation in almost all cases. —February 2019 | 3,000 words.
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  When should a decision be fast, or slow?

  Decisions should usually be made quickly, to accelerate action and learning. But sometimes it really is smarter to take your time. Here’s how to decide. —September 2018 | 1,300 words.
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  How repositioning a product allows you to 8x its price

  You can charge much more than you think, if you reposition your value-proposition. Here’s how. —June 2018 | 700 words.
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  Your customers hate MVPs. Make a SLC instead.

  “MVP” implies a selfish process, abusing customers so you can “learn.” Instead, make the first version Simple, Loveable, and Complete. —August 2017 | 1,400 words.
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  Change: Damned if you do, damned more if you don't

  Everyone wants change, but doesn’t want to change. Though inevitable, change is uncomfortable and exhausting. Manage it with kindness. —August 2017 | 700 words.
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  Satisficing vs Maximizing

  Fast, or Best? Choose your decision-making goal wisely, especially if you’re a natural perfectionist. —May 2017 | 500 words.
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  Building in public forces true competitive advantage

  “Building in public” is popular: How fun when strangers cheer you on! But isn’t competitive advantage ruined when competitors know your growth rate and steal your source code? —December 2016 | 700 words.
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  How to measure the accuracy of forecasts

  How do you assess forecasts, when the forecast is only a probability? It’s not just about accuracy. Let’s dive into the math. —June 2016 | 2,200 words.
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  Your non-linear problem of 90% utilization

  Is everyone working very hard, all the time, and yet accomplishing 1/10th of what it seems they should? Maybe this is why. —December 2015 | 900 words.
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  Pricing determines your business model

  Pricing is inextricably linked to brand, product, and purchasing decisions. It cannot be “figured out later,” because it determines your business model today. —November 2014 | 1,200 words.
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  In its emptiness, there is the function of a startup

  Everything about a startup changes over time. The few things that don’t, are its essence. The voyage is meaningless, unless you decide what those things are. —August 2014 | 1,000 words.
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  The only way to guarantee startup success

  What is it like to reach the pinnacle of success? Is that where you attain happiness and fulfillment? Or are those found right here, right now. —July 2014 | 1,000 words.
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  Rare things become common at scale

  Software cannot scale through architecture and automation alone. New, more difficult problems appear that didn’t exist before, also bringing new downstream consequences. —January 2014 | 1,100 words.
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  You can have two Big Things, but not three

  No you can’t “have it all.” You can have two things, but not three. —January 2014 | 500 words.
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  More money if you do, more money if you don’t

  A business always takes more money than you expect, even when you take this fact into account. Here’s why. —January 2014 | 500 words.
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  Startup identity & the sadness of a successful exit

  Many founders experience a profound and prolonged sadness after selling their company. But “not selling” might be worse. Maybe my story will help you. —February 2013 | 1,800 words.
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  “ROI” is the wrong way to sell your product

  Customers ask for ROI calculations to justify purchasing your software, but it still doesn’t convince them. Here’s what to do instead. —October 2012 | 600 words.
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  What a startup does to you. Or: A celebration of new life

  A startup is a crucible – a fiery place that tests your limits, not by probing them but by violently exceeding them, all of the time. It’s worth it. —July 2012 | 1,000 words.
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  The “Convergent” theory of finding truth in darkness

  How to tell the difference between a truly great startup idea, and people saying “Sure, sounds good” when they really mean “No, I’m not buying.” —June 2012 | 1,500 words.
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  Learn by Copy

  In America we’re trained that all copying is bad; of course plagiarism is, but perhaps we’re throwing the baby out with the bathwater. —February 2012 | 900 words.
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  When being “first” is not a competitive advantage

  Is it good to be “first?” It seems so – what’s the point of being a copycat? While “first” sounds impressive, in reality it doesn’t predict who will win. —December 2011 | 1,000 words.
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  Easy to criticize, hard to create

  It’s easy to explain why any given business will fail. So what? But neither is it wise to totally ignore the critics. —December 2011 | 800 words.
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  Being who you are, while becoming better

  We’re told “be yourself” to seek happiness and success. But what if “being yourself” also means striving to become better? What is “yourself?” —August 2011 | 1,600 words.
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  Never say “no,” but rarely say “yes.”

  “Focus” requires saying “no” to most things, but there’s a way to do it that allows you to say “yes” exactly when it matters most. —April 2011 | 1,500 words.
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  When you want to quit because it’s just not worth it

  Are you crying in the shower because you can’t handle it anymore? Beyond Impostor Syndrome: Complete melt-down? Well, at least you’re in good company. —February 2011 | 1,700 words.
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  The unfortunate math behind consulting companies

  Hiring even one person creates a lot less profit than you’d think, and launching a product rarely works out. Here are some tips for consulting companies. —February 2011 | 2,000 words.
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  Color Wheels are wrong? How color vision actually works

  Artists say all colors are a mixture of red, yellow, and blue. But physics and TV screens and printers disagree. How does color really work? —January 2011 | 1,900 words.
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  Reputation isn’t as powerful as you imagine

  Blogger with tens of thousands of subscribers launches a new venture… and gets only 2 signups. Not the advantage you thought it was. —October 2010 | 1,200 words.
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  The Pattern-Seeking Fallacy

  We humans are terrible at discerning patterns from randomness, and in marketing data we unwittingly find “insights” that are actually noise. Here’s how to fix that. —June 2010 | 1,300 words.
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  Pick one and own it

  What if your company could have only one single advantage over the competition? This exercise will make your positioning and strategy stronger. —March 2010 | 1,900 words.
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  Impostor Syndrome: Why I felt like a fraud, and how I overcame it

  Most high-performing people experience Impostor Syndrome. I did too. When you understand the cause, you can defeat it. —January 2010 | 1,800 words.
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  Rich vs. King in the Real World: Why I sold my company

  Reflecting on selling Smart Bear in 2007, offering insights for entrepreneurs facing similar decisions. —October 2009 | 1,500 words.
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  Business Advice Plagued by Survivor Bias

  Advice from “successful entrepreneurs” might be unreliable due to Survivor Bias. What’s real, and what’s random? —August 2009 | 1,600 words.
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  Sacrifice your health for your startup

  Maximizing your chance for success means sacrificing health and family. This sounds controversial, but it’s not just me. —June 2009 | 1,100 words.
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  Letters to Joel Spolsky

  I regret to inform you… —June 2009 | 1,100 words.
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  Easy statistics for A/B testing and hamsters

  A/B testing tools often lie about whether something is “statistically significant.” Here’s an extremely simple, mathematically sound formula to compute it for yourself. —April 2009 | 1,500 words.
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  Double your productivity without more work or stress

  People love to say that getting 1% better per day makes you 37x better after a year, but it’s obvious that it makes no sense. But 2x better is possible. —March 2009 | 1,200 words.
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  Distinguishing constructive criticism from bad business advice

  Beware of advice that tries to change who you are. True wisdom guides you to a better version of yourself. —December 2008 | 1,000 words.
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  Procrastinate for Success!

  Procrastination can be a useful tool. You can’t do everything. So don’t. —October 2008 | 500 words.
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  Hello, I’m 1074018628

  Is “customer service” actually genuine service, or is it a shield relieving everyone at your company from having to speak to one of those pesky customers? —August 2008 | 200 words.
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  Discount gambit

  Discounting is the typical sales technique, but refusing to discount can lead to a much better business, even in the Enterprise. —March 2008 | 1,000 words.
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  You’re a real company when…

  What marks the moment when you become a “real” company? —April 2007 | 700 words.