A Smart Bear: On Analysis
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Extreme brainstorming questions to trigger new, better ideasWe know, “no idea is a bad idea,” but brainstorming is often unsuccessful. These prompts actually work. They could even lead to a unique business model. —March 2022 | 3,700 words.
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Excuse me, is there a problem?Many startups fail despite identifying a real problem and building a product that solves that problem. This explains why, so you can avoid their fate. —April 2023 | 6,800 words.
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The Elephant in the room: The myth of exponential hypergrowthEven Facebook and Slack did not grow “exponentially,” as frequently described. Here is the correct model that you can use to understand and affect growth. —March 2022 | 5,600 words.
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Business Advice Plagued by Survivor BiasAdvice from “successful entrepreneurs” might be unreliable due to Survivor Bias. What’s real, and what’s random? —August 2009 | 1,600 words.
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All pretty models are wrong, but some ugly models are usefulIdentifying useful frameworks for companies, strategy, markets, and organizations, instead of those that just look pretty in PowerPoint. —March 2025 | 1,900 words.
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Adjacency Matrix: How to expand after PMFA simple workshop that evaluates new business ideas relative to your existing strengths – the key to expanding without overreaching. —May 2024 | 2,400 words.
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The Lindy Effect on startup potentialOn average, you’re halfway to your final destination. How, then, do we not only double from here, but 10x? —November 2014 | 1,100 words.
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Ignoring the Wisdom of CrowdsDiscover how to leverage the wisdom of the crowds, but also when to avoid it, as it can easily lead you astray. —January 2009 | 1,100 words.
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The Serengeti Plain: Fallacies that aren’t fallaciesA contrarian look at logical “fallacies” that maybe aren’t so illogical after all. —October 2024 | 2,100 words.
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For probabilities, use Fermi numbers, not wordsDon’t use phrases like “unlikely” or “almost certainly.” Here’s real-world data showing why not, and what to do instead. —July 2023 | 1,000 words.
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How many things should there be? (Hint: Not 10)If we happened to evolve with nine fingers, we would have “Top 9” lists. So, a “Top 10” list probably doesn’t have the correct number of things. —December 2023 | 400 words.