A Smart Bear: On Statistics

p-Hacking your A/B tests

Half of your “successful” A/B tests are false-positives. This is why, and how to fix it. —November 2024 | 2,000 words.
The Pattern-Seeking Fallacy

We humans are terrible at discerning patterns from randomness, and in marketing data we unwittingly find “insights” that are actually noise. Here’s how to fix that. —June 2010 | 1,500 words.