A Smart Bear: On Statistics

Half of your “successful” A/B tests are false-positives. This is why, and how to fix it. —November 2024 | 2,000 words.

How do you assess forecasts, when the forecast is only a probability? It’s not just about accuracy. Let’s dive into the math. —June 2016 | 2,100 words.

We humans are terrible at discerning patterns from randomness, and in marketing data we unwittingly find “insights” that are actually noise. Here’s how to fix that. —June 2010 | 1,500 words.