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A compass is not a map
An entrepreneur confided in me recently that he didn’t like Lean Startup. He asked whether I thought that was OK, or whether is he not cut out to build a startup. “Elon didn’t use Lean Startup to build Tesla.” True, but you’re not manufacturing cars. Still, it’s also true that before Lean Startup most startups failed, and after Lead Startup most startups failed, so is it really necessary?
A founder uses “37signals does it” to justify every decision, even if he can’t explain why, or why it applies to his situation, or whether 37signals did that when they were still his size.
A startup pitch-deck boasts about the mistakes they’ve made because of the lessons they’ve learned. But the lessons haven’t resulted in paying customers, so is there value in that experience? Is it time to hang up the towel, or does this knowledge and introspection position them for rocket ship growth?
A compass is not a map. A compass tells you which way is north, not whether you should be heading north.
There’s no map in startups despite even me saying there might be. There are examples, but for every startup that landed 300 customers from their TechCrunch launch article there’s another which got 0; for every startup that built loyalty on Twitter there’s one with 20% month-over-month revenue growth that has yet to reserve their Twitter handle; for every startup ascribing their success to spectacular design, there’s another successful one who has never hired a designer (and it shows).
Indeed, for every piece of advice P, there are many successes and failures of startups who did P, and also many successes and failures of startups that did the opposite of P. The 2x2 diagram is full. So what does that tell us about P?
The trouble with “rules” in startups, besides the inherent survivor bias, is that by definition the successful ones are anomalies. Statistics show trends, but trends don’t predict outliers.
What does predict an outlier? Nothing. A successful startup looks a lot like an unsuccessful startup at the start. Statistics can’t be used to determine the outcome of the individual case (not just in startups, but anywhere).
Don’t confuse startup frameworks or dogma or the origin story of your favorite startup with laws. You have to find your own way, using all this startup advice for sparks of inspiration, for brainstorming, as a candy store where every item has its own merits but you must pick and choose what to put into your basket. Decide what makes you the best version of who you already are.
There’s no map. That’s OK. Keep moving.
https://longform.asmartbear.com/compass/
© 2007-2026 Jason Cohen
@asmartbear
