A Smart Bear: On Decisions
-
Fermi ROI: Fixing the ROI rubricTraditional rubrics fail to reveal the best answers, or how to explain those answers to others. After explaining why, the following system solves both failures. —June 2022 | 4,700 words. -
Rocks, Pebbles, Sand: How to implement in practiceThis complete work-prioritization framework builds on the simplistic “Rocks, Pebbles, Sand” analogy, adding the details you need in the real world. —July 2022 | 4,000 words. -
Stubborn Visionaries & Pigheaded FoolsHow do you know when to stop, versus when to push through? You don’t, not even in hindsight. But these guiding questions can help. —March 2024 | 1,200 words. -
“It's a Balance” isn't always the answerResolve decision-making conflicts by selecting the right approach: Make a bold choice, synthesize a new solution, or find the balance. —June 2024 | 2,700 words. -
Binstack: Making a maximal multi-dimensional decisionBinstack is a technique for selecting the “single most impactful” solution when there are multiple, incomparable dimensions to evaluate. —July 2022 | 3,400 words. -
Never say “no,” but rarely say “yes.”“Focus” requires saying “no” to most things, but there’s a way to do it that allows you to say “yes” exactly when it matters most. —April 2011 | 1,500 words. -
JIT selection from independent streams: An alternative to the “big backlog” of workThe vaunted “single-threaded, ordered list” confuses “prioritization” with “work-planning,” and forces comparisons of the un-comparable. Here’s the solution. —August 2022 | 2,500 words. -
When should a decision be fast, or slow?Decisions should usually be made quickly, to accelerate action and learning. But sometimes it really is smarter to take your time. Here’s how to decide. —September 2018 | 1,300 words. -
Adjacency Matrix: How to expand after PMFA simple workshop that evaluates new business ideas relative to your existing strengths – the key to expanding without overreaching. —May 2024 | 2,400 words. -
Individual efficiency vs administrative efficiencyWhen to prioritize individual autonomy, and when to standardize for global optimization. —August 2024 | 2,200 words. -
Deciding whether an investment is worthwhileWhy “expected value” doesn’t work; here’s a better framework for making long-term investments in your career, startup, and life. —February 2024 | 2,700 words. -
Satisficing vs MaximizingFast, or Best? Choose your decision-making goal wisely, especially if you’re a natural perfectionist. —May 2017 | 500 words. -
The Serengeti Plain: Fallacies that aren’t fallaciesA contrarian look at logical “fallacies” that maybe aren’t so illogical after all. —October 2024 | 2,100 words. -
How to simplify complex decisions by cleaving the factsSimplify complex decisions by separating upsides from downsides, investing in upsides, vetoing with downsides, and using an appropriate decision framework. —November 2016 | 2,100 words. -
Pick one and own itWhat if your company could have only one single advantage over the competition? This exercise will make your positioning and strategy stronger. —March 2010 | 1,900 words. -
Strong opinions, somewhat weakly heldA strategy that changes all the time cannot be executed, but a strategy that never changes is definitely incorrect. —November 2008 | 600 words.
